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Nanos
68d

# Question: How many ventilators do you need per 1,000 of population ? Where I am, we have one per 4,700 people.. So, how many more do we need.. I would ask elsewhere, but it appears every medical forum I ask such questions in, is infected with assholes who are just abusive and refuse to answer the question, even though they are highly medically qualified and experienced. It's almost as if, they don't want us to know how shit the situation really is ! Being how here is full of logical, intelligent folk, who are good at looking at the numbers, what answers might you give for this ?

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Okay let’s run those numbers and assume optimistically that 1 out of five hospitalizations from Covid19 are for breathing problems and require a reapirator (20%). I can’t find the source doing a quick google but I saw a CDC diagram showing that about 20% of all coronavirus cases required hospitalization(skewing older on age obviously but assume equal age distribution for simplicity). So let’s say conservatively 50% of the population is exposed and contracts coronavirus. That means 500 people with cases, 20% of those need a hospital(100), and 20% of THOSE need a ventilator (20). Now space them out over time with proper social distancing, and you may only see 5 cases simultaneously. So 5 per 1000 people, with relatively safe assumptions. That means we’re going to have doctors deciding who lives and who dies like Italy if we don’t all stay at home for a month.
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> assume equal age distribution for simplicity

Here we have a much older population, so that would make the figures.. ?

> So let’s say conservatively 50% of the

> population is exposed and contracts

> coronavirus.

They reckon here, we are looking at 80% of the population exposed.

> So 5 per 1000 people, with relatively

> safe assumptions.

Assuming the updated figures ?

> if we don’t all stay at home for a month.

That will be difficult for the majority of the population here, since we have 0% unemployment and some folk even have more than one job ! (4 jobs isn't unusual..)

And most of those are in critical industries..

(Think industrial town.)

Already there are supply shortages, since there are not enough people to man the supply ships.

(25% reduction in workforce due to illness, and there was already an existing 5% of the workforce missing due to skilled labour shortages. )

Industry is on reduced working hours, thus reduced output..
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There is quite a concern that the number of critical experts needed to maintain things is down to single figures, or in some cases, only one person on the entire island is available to fix the electricity network..

Planes / ships / trucks, buses, cars, are beginning to go out of services due to lack of spares and staff to fit them..
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@Diactoros who are "we"? Do you live with Nanos somewhere outside Italy?
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@electrineer

I believe its a general term for 'us'.
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This is the latest modelling from Imperial University, which caused the UK government to drastically alter their response.

https://imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/...

I haven't read it all, but I think it has predicted numbers of ICU beds needed for different scenarios
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This is the graph from the report.

The best case predicts the UK will need about 125 critical care beds per 100000 of population. The current capacity is 8 (I assume surge capacity is availability after taking off all the other existing requirements such as people who are critically ill for other reasons)

On the plus side, closing all the bars will probably free up a lot of resources from the accident and emergency departments in hospitals, especially on the weekend nights.
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@Nanos
@Diactoros

Yesterday's estimate figures by the WHO were :

Of infected :
95.5 % have mild to no symptoms over two weeks. This is the likeliest infection phase of their surroundings.
.this :
75.0 % are cured under quarantine without extreme medical care. About two weeks.
.this :
ALL are set under respiratory systems.
50.0 % of those intensive care patients die. Within roughly two weeks.

So you go for population by area and estimated infection rate per healing time.
That many respiratory systems your region will need.

Maybe I'll find that development description later and post it.
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simply put: instead of doing maths, get more respirators...
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@kleopi

I want some idea of how many to make, in case we we have to make them ourselves, we being the folk on the island.
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I apologize. It's not the WHOs' but RKIs' figures for Germany (its national epidemologic institute strongly collaborating with the WHO).

Please find the previously mentioned excertps on page four (4) standadized modelling of epidemic development.

https://rki.de/DE/Content/...
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> So 5 per 1000 people

Where I am, we have had 1 death per 2,000 population, and 1 ventilator used per 12,000 population.

Anyone else got figures for their areas ?
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@Nanos you could probably interpolate with the age distribution of a country. Germany is at stage 4 in the demographic transition model, and would be at stage 5 without net migration.
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Checking a capital city location here of similar population size, the figures are:

1 death per 1,500 population, and 1 ventilator used per 500 population.