Numbers 1 and 3 have the opposite effect of 2 in practice.
There's a racoon with rocket launchers amd missiles staring at us.
3) We let the racoon do our product because we trust thr racoon won't blow it.
4) after a lengthy discussion, racoon has explosive reasons pointing at us - let him keep his stuff...
1) let's do a stare contest - as long as we don't blink, it won't go poof.
Bit more serious... Risk planning is in theory a good mind game, but in practice you'll most often lack the in depth knowledge to be useful.
Hence my metaphor with the racoon...
Eg. risk avoidance requires an understanding of what consequences the possible risk situations could have to know if a risk is involved. When you're sitting in front of a black box with no information... It's hard. ;)