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Search - "probability is important"
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I feel I need to write some side project summary somewhere.
So here it is about 3 months later:
- deleted 90% of code I created during last 3 months
- rewrote backed 5 times
- 200 lines POC still waiting to put in any meaningful architecture on frontend
- frontend part after aurelia, next, gatsby, react I think it would be vue powered by nuxtjs
- forced myself to buy food for whole week and don’t go out (except go running ) before I finish at least what I wrote on whiteboard
Now some positive news:
- there is not much left to be fucked up, removed or unnecessary added
- I think I got a plan
- this is probably first side project that makes me happy for such long time
- there is some probability it would help people and this is what I want to do in my life
Most important is that I know it would take at least half a year to do basic version of it and I don’t care.
Wish me luck so I can put some sneak peak after next 3 months. -
As i was shitting on toilet I realized something very important. This could be THE answer.
The question: what is the formula for achieving success? I realized this must be THE ultimate answer:
Money + connections + luck >= success
Why?
MONEY:
You must have money to make more money.
CONNECTIONS:
Some average joe can tell his friend Cockty to phone call his friend Dickson who's a good friend with Cumston to message his millionaire friend Asslicker who is gonna help the average joe succeed.
LUCK:
No matter what you do or how hard you work, how many achievements you have or degrees, you can spend 10 million dollars on a project -- and still fail because you're not lucky.
Let's calculate this probability:
have = 1
missing = -1
money = 0
connections = 0
luck = 0
success = 1
money + connections + luck >= success
Case 1 (have everything):
have + have + have >= success
1 + 1 + 1 >= 1
3 >= 1 ✅
Case 2 (no money):
missing + have + have >= success
-1 + 1 + 1 >= 1
1 >= 1 ✅
Case 3 (no connections):
have + missing + have >= success
1 - 1 + 1 >= 1
1 >= 1 ✅
Case 4 (no luck):
have + have + missing >= success
1 + 1 - 1 >= 1
1 >= 1 ✅
Case 5 (no money, no connections):
missing + missing + have >= success
-1 - 1 + 1 >= 1
-1 >= 1 ❌
Case 6 (no money, no luck):
missing + have + missing >= success
-1 + 1 - 1 >= 1
-1 >= 1 ❌
Case 7 (no connections, no luck):
have + missing + missing >= success
1 - 1 - 1 >= 1
-1 >= 1 ❌
Case 8 (no money, no connections, no luck):
missing + missing + missing >= success
-1 - 1 - 1 >= 1
-3 >= 1 ❌
We have: 4 possible outcomes that we want, k=4
Out of total: 8 possible combinations, n=8
Probability of achieving success using this formula is: P(A) = k/n = 4/8= 0.5 * 100% = 50% chance of being successful in this shit life
This is correct in theory. HOWEVER:
Case 1: someone having
- a lot of money
- a lot of connections
- a lot of luck
In practicality is damn near IMPOSSIBLE
Maybe 1 in 100 million people are born like this. That's 100,000,000 people / 8,000,000,000 people = 0.0125 * 100% = 1.25% of people are this blessed and gifted in life. This might be even less so we can ignore this probability as a possible outcome and average it out to realistic average joe daily life.
Therefore giving us a total of 7 combinations, 3 possibilities to succeed in this shit life
So: k/n = 3/7 = 0.4285 * 100% = 42.85% chance to be successful in this shit life
Mathematically proven how life is pure trash
Funny enough we can round it to 42%. And 42 is the answer to life, universe and everything in existence4 -
!dev philosophical
Quality vs Opinion
I have a feeling that these things have always been at odds with each other and now with the constant connectedness it has just become more apparent that most people don’t understand the difference (or even realize there is a difference for that matter)
Let’s face it. Most people have awful taste. They listen to whatever new music their radio station decides was hot. They watch whatever show everyone else is watching. They are manipulated by large scale news organizations...
Basically, most people are sheep.
The problem is that sheep are a dangerous combination of loud and stupid. Giving these loud stupid sheep a platform to amplify their voice is a bad idea for a society, but a great tool for the pigs to manipulate them.
“Frightened though they were, some of the animals might possibly have protested, but at this moment the sheep set up their usual bleating of "Four legs good, two legs bad," which went on for several minutes and put an end to the discussion.”
This isn’t confined to one political party or view, it isn’t geographic, it isn’t based on education, it isn’t based on wether a person is ethical or not...
It’s universal.
You can translate “four legs good, two legs bad” into Agent Orange and his followers chanting “lock her up” just as well as it could be translated into the angry leaders of the modern feminist movement.
In both cases (both on opposite ends of the ethical spectrum) you have the loudest dumb, angry sheep getting the even dumber sheep to chant along, wether it is good for them or not.
Now to loop this back. The problem is that dumb sheep are emotional. They truly believe that they are NOT dumb and that their opinions and emotions are a measure of quality.
I FEEL bad, and you are talking to me, so you must BE bad.
I don’t LIKE this amazingly well made movie, so it must BE bad.
And anyone else who has a different opinion is just wrong. Anyone who try’s to explain the merits of the other side is either my enemy or is stupid.
^^^
Their opinion, incorrect.
————
Now for the tough part...
Most likely, based on probability, you are a sheep.
Yes, you! The smartest person you know. The guy/girl who has a degree or masters of a PHD. The person who builds amazing software. You! Are. A. Sheep. And you are dangerous to the world.
To put a cherry on top.
No, you opinions are not important. Your feelings are fucking meaningless. Your morals are worthless. Your voice has as much value and a loose asshole fart from a fat guy trapped in a deep well in Siberia.
But don’t get down about this. It’s doesn’t make you any less of a person. Remember that almost every person who has ever lived in history has been a sheep. They have chanted one useless, dangerous, misguided, harmful chant after another through the ages.
————
To those of you who try not to be sheep. Just keep trying to get a little better every day. When someone says...
“We do it this way because we have always done it this way”
... be skeptics. Explore the merits and logic of the situation.
And if you are tired of being led by stupid sheep then save some money, build something cool and start your own business.
Just remember, you will always need the sheep. They will be your employees, your friends, your bosses, your investors etc.
Treat them well, don’t hate them, and if you ever find yourself leading a pack of sheep then try to keep a healthy distance from their chanting while leading them down the right path.
They will thank you for it in the end.
———
PS. For those of you thinking “this is very judgemental and self centred”
All I can do is to try to speak your language....
Baaaahhhhh, baaahhhhh, bahhhhh
Which translates form sheep to human as...
“Eat a dick. Have a nice day”