You'd think that after doing this for 8 years I would've gotten better at estimates...

Nobody can estimate even the most predictable work.

So do less of it and you'll make fewer mistakes.

Poes

My current project.

Estimates:

- Stage 1 : 3 days

- Stage 2 : 2-3 weeks

Reality:

Stage 1 : 2 weeks

Stage 2 : 3 days

I am not even embarrassed at this point, I am just happy we managed to pass Stage 1 development

Estimations are regularly off - even if you're doing highly repeatable work.

Consider that it's pretty regular that construction work ends up being delayed and costing 3x more than the planned budget - even when the construction companies have done pretty much the exact same thing dozens of times before, and there's not as many changes in construction as in software.

The idea that "you've done this before - so we can estimate it takes the same amount of time" rarely works.

@jiraTicket estimated are there so managers can justify their presence.

The truth is, it takes as long as it takes. An estimate is just another date it won't be done by.

You can have something by a date, or you can have the thing you want when it's done.

If sales people would realize this, management wouldn't have to hound each other for dates, and engineers can just do their jobs

All true. The problem is managers/PMs/clients etc all want them and take them as gospel

@lungdart ❤️ Agree.

My product dev team has managed to get rid of the Estimation process entirely - but whenever I talk to colleagues who work for consultant projects I am sadly reminded how "the entire reason we got a contract was that we estimated it could be done in 3 months" 🤣

The one estimate I can appreciate is when the PM uses ad hoc estimates to see if it's worth even discussing building a feature.

Like "I hear a couple customers asking for a bookmark feature - would that be a huge project?" - Yes "OK, I'll tell em it's a no go"

"I hear a couple customers asking for the menu to have a link to customer-service, would that be a huge project?" - No it's done in 2 minutes "OK! let's do it"

@lungdart Totally agree.