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Root6334173dThe market is not rational right now.
Lots of sales, though.
I've never been steered wrong by motley fool, just saying.
@billgates oh for sure. I don't recommend taking anyones word as faith.
But they've had good leads over the years and usually solid insights.
From what I can tell DOW will come back up, even with the FUD about "market corrections".
End game is hyperinflation, not deflation.
Thats what all the panic is about the oil market.
It's the petrodollar having a seizure attack. Not dead, but maybe.
And the only way we can fix that is war and/or 'money-printer-go-BRRRRRR' or a miracle.
I don't count on miracles. So moneyprinting it is then.
The takeover of the fed was predicted back in december when the overnight dry farted and thought it shat the bed then panic-begged for liquidity so it could ACTUALLY shit the bed 6 months to a year later.
I'd recommend already established tech because the future looks like "buy the little guys" no longer applies so much. But then I also was recommending REITs to a friend just three months prior...
Warning: not financial advice.
When has the market ever been rational?
The market is a casino. Never gamble what you aren't prepared to lose.
If you're gonna take a loss, might as well go down with the ship. Maybe it'll right itself is my figuring.
But then thats the sunk cost fallacy in action.
So if you don't have a redline that says "sell" and a blackline that says "sell", you'll always end up riding that elevator ALL the way to the top, or bottom and getting off at the wrong time.
Part of the reason for selling before a peak is to minimize the negative impact of trying to time the market (which is a mistake).
And part of the reason for having stoplosses et al, is so it's not up to your gut or emotion. So, if you're winning, you know it works (for now), and if you're losing at least you are losing consistently, and maybe know why instead of being all over the place like freshie day traders who just bought their first GOOG and keep parroting lines from the boiler room.
@Wisecrack for me the redline can only be established 30-days after I buy due to trading restrictions. I bought PALL last week and then immediately regretted it after reviewing my rational. Then next day the price dropped by 15%. All I'm thinking is when this restriction ends let's hope it is at least back to my purchase price so I can exit.
As for tech stocks, I keep wondering how much is hype. I mean AMZN was like wtf, their PE is like 90 and they have a huge debt I think and a PR crisis. And Google is effectively a monopoly. Which is also why I'm cautious. The main drivers of the market rebound are tech stocks but who is actually going to buying iPhones if they can't even pay rent?
I don't know about you but I want Trump out and given how many voters have lost their jobs and hopefully watched him on TV telling people they should try drinking detergent.
Perhaps politicians will stop drinking the spiked fruit punch at their parties as well and actually do some trustbusting and stop being a bunch of babies.
> who is actually going to buying iPhones if they can't even pay rent?
supply chain risk is a bigger factor.
No one that was holding tesla, after surviving the great short-war of 2019, actually thought it was anything less than titanium-plated, until covid came around.
Tech stock is tech stock. And PE isn't.
Google is a monopoly, which is why I'm the exact opposite of cautious.
It's not competing on the infallibility of its tech, it's competing on its modern institutional inertia. Regulatory market is kinda showing some risks though but realistically thats over the horizon.
AMZN relies on cheap shipping and shipping subsidiaries.
Cheap shipping looks solid because of gas prices, except the massive ongoing decline in retail is going to (and already has) lead
to bankruptcies in the shipping industry. So I'm expecting that to cut into their margins, maybe not their stock prices too much though (again, irrational)
Part of the reason for suggesting REITs was the stable returns, their relative immune to market volatility, and so on, but with the consumer credit crunch foretelling a new mortgage bubble (circa 2008),
Google also has a secret weapon: it owns the ONLY self-driving vehicle (waymo)
tech that 1. has succeeded in passing on-road regulatory hurdles (arguably the BIGGEST barrier),
2. thats driven more than 20 million miles.
All this while top ten automakers have poured *Billions* with a B, into doing the same with nothing meaningful to show for all their money.
You think googles valuable now?
Imagine what it'll be worth when they're the sole company that owns the tech that can *actually* replace the labor cost of the long-haul shipping industry.
Btw are you hedging? If you're setting up a stoploss I take it you're not.
Also with the amount of volatility I don't know if I'd even recommend using one and would just go with hedges anyway.
Also I take it you're not option trading yeah?
I just have a little bit of stock put away for a rainy day. I'm no day trader.
*its. fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu. one of them days.
@Wisecrack I'm not a trader either, just trying to figure out what to do with my money. Most right now is in 401k bonds but do have a lot of cash too.
I'm just wondering what happens when the government finally cracks the whip. I'm not sure how far they can go or what a break up would look like, can they be ordered to share the tech? Or sell it to the government?
And how much right now in the market is just hype. FANMGA apparently is like the biggest component of SP500 which is the only other thing that can be invested cuz company's retirement plan is shit... Their commodities fund returned -20% over the past 5yrs and is now 100% cash....
But yes biggest question is when do I move, start maxing out my 401k... the biggest whale.
But yes Google's earnings are this week so guess will wait and see... My original plan would've doubled my portfolio size but just can't decide when or where to put it....
I'm also thinking clean energy but don't know much about that area other then it's socially responsible but who knows, maybe we'll all die before then ...
The other thing with these big tech companies is they don't pay dividends so for all I know all this is monopoly money... Do they really have $100B in cash.... Where's the spending spree....
I think last news I heard was they were firing people...
I've owned ATT since 2016 and it's down about $250 but it's paid me $300+ over the same time. Google I got super lucky... Bought it at $500 right before it popped to $1000 but only had 2 shares...
But yes at least ATT is showing me the money whereas big tech is sorta like shrodingers cat?
Sorta like money.... Complete faith and trust in government.... Or else...
@billgates clean energy is always a boondoggle that's worth the investment under administrations that want it because they'll throw money at
It and roll back financial regs to make it happen, but this administration/senate/Congress isn't one of them. The optics of helping the coastal cities isn't a play that's gonna happen with the exceptions of NYC and people in Florida.
I've been watching and several people I trust said years ago "LNG is what to pay attention to."
And what do you know, here we are more than 3 years later and they were right.
Can't speak of the bond market, but the muni takeover said enough on its own. Feds not gonna let the pension bubble burst without a fight.
Just me personally but I never trusted 401ks for anything.
Hypothetical future gains are hypothetical. "Objects in the mirror may be closer than they appear" applied to everything except returns and money.
Attached has been a solid bet for a very long time if you're talking dividend.
But that assumes people are plowing that back into further shares. And ATT assumed the same.
Way the financial markets changed (and still is) that assumption may not be so rock solid in the near term.
Wisecrack352368d@billgates I meant to write "ATT" not "attached" but motherfucking autocorrect is always shitting the fucking bed.
You said you set it up to pay dividends back into your account.
Have you considered fractional shares? I mean if you're just gonna reinvest those returns you might as well maximize thoroughput!