How's Irene and other friends from Ukraine holding up?

Shit is about to get real it seems and it's scary when big nations enter the playing field.

Except shit is not gonna go anywhere. West media and politicians are just panicking. There's no benefit for Russia in an invasion.

If it gets real it won't be in ukraine, unless the u.s. commits some provocation.

Russians already specified their red line: offensive rockets on their border.

They obviously can't retaliate directly without giving the u.s. what it wants, so I imagine they won't.

While we're paying attenton to ukraine, our eyes should be on the ball: syria and taiwan.

Who just moved a ton of troops to syria?

Who has motive to retaliate to the ukrainian provocation and drag the u.s. into the sandbox again? (not that we ever left).

If it prevents a war in ukraine, they'll do it.

Give a dog a bit of red meat, or it'll eat your whole hand.

Same idea.

One is already proxy-war territory, the other is violating the "rules" (major powers invading each other directly is an unwritten rule on the international stage.)

We fought a war in in korea based on these very rules.

Taiwan and syria will be the battlefields.

Of course that doesn't rule out low level terrorism in ukraine.

That said, that panic may be some sort of tactic to discourage Russia even more, but at the expense of overall people's minds.

@iiii The US, putting weapons and troops ever closer to Russia: that's the countries' decision.
Russia, putting its troops on its own fucking territory: that's provocation!
China, holding navy exercises in the South-Chinese Sea: that's also provocation!

@Fast-Nop It's ok as long as the one doing it is the glorious and noble ally of Justice. The world police is here to keep all of us safe from evil.

@Fast-Nop yeah, I never was for the idea of joining US lead NATO in the first place and US military aid as well. They are too pervasive.

@Fast-Nop Okay but China isn't just holding navy exercises, they're building artificial islands in an effort to claim the sea as Chinese territory despite every agreement ever.

@lbfalvy Sure, that's a different story, but the navy trainings themselves were also treated as provocation.

I am more interested in things like 50K truckers descending on Ottawa. They have enough funds to occupy Ottawa for years. The people are donating to the cause to force Turdo to change his policies. Going to see something similar in Europe and possibly Australia. People are done with the bullshit. Both sides of the fence are tearing down the fence and looking for the asshole that built the fence.

@Fast-Nop No it's not a fucking different story, it's the same country with the same army in the same region.

@Nanos nah, Europe will do everything to not lose gas. Otherwise they would be much more aggressive towards Russia.

@iiii However, both Poland and the Ukraine will do everything to sabotage North Stream.

Poland because their historic logic is like, when Germany and Russia got together, Poland was always crushed in the middle. The Ukraine would lose one of its most valuable assets if Russia could just shut off the gas due to unpaid bills and still be able to make money with the West.

Both Poland and Ukraine would basically depend on Germany to open the gas valves from the reverse, and an additional dependency is never desirable.

@Fast-Nop meanwhile Hungary: we'll just order more gas from Russia and resell to Ukraine cause they are idiots who managed to bite the hand that fed them.

@Frederick The gas price isn't even related to Russia cutting supply. They deliver as ordered, and even more than that. The problem is that the West didn't want long term contracts because it was cheaper on the spot market.

Now the energy mafia has taken the spot market because they found out that the demand is inelastic price-wise, and the spot market is expensive now. D'oh.

@Nanos Well yeah, that's the energy mafia. They made more long-term contracts, and participants like some private or even public services who stupidly bet on the spot market are screwed, and hence also the individual citizens as their customers. Structurally, the electricity price spikes paint a pretty similar picture.

Not all of them made that kind of bet, but those who made a solid planning now can't serve new customers because their long-term contracts obviously are dimensioned for their existing customer base. New customers, like from the bankrupt services, would require buying additional capacity - from the spot market at spot prices. Many providers (like mine) refuse new customers.

So it's not an actual shortage, it's an allocation problem because enough actors made risky bets, and the risk has come real. Some service providers were stupid, the energy mafia smart, and the customers who profited from lower prices before are now facing the bill.

@Nanos And btw., my electricity provider doesn't have such problems because they were never about offering the lowest price. Instead, they engage in renewable energy not only as annual sum game, but at each individual moment, which is a lot more difficult to achieve. It also requires solid planning, which is why they didn't get hit at the spot market.

I was already in that mindset way before the current climate stuff, like 15 years ago. I chose somewhat higher prices instead of piling up nuclear waste on future generations. Unexpectedly, I now enjoy a rather low and stable price.

@Fast-Nop so not everything is being solved by being the cheapest option on the market? Who would have thought.

@iiii The idea to take what's on the spot market if it's priced nicely can work out - but not for essential goods that you must have, like gas for heating in winter, or electricity. Rather for things where you can easily say "nah, thanks".