Recently I've come to notice that I keep using my gut feeling every day in perf investigations [and it pans out]. Until now I used to think that "gut feeling" in IT and everywhere else is a synonim for "guessing". Turns out it's not at all that simple.

Damn, that's exciting! Love that spidey-sensey-feeling!! I hope it means I'm getting quite good at what I do.

It's called making an educated guess.

@localpost maybe. But based on the same data then we [our team] are all making an educated guess about the same problem. While their guesses seem sound, it happens quite often that I can hypothetically explain all the anomalies in metrics and logs at the same time [we have hundreds of moving parts] and quite often point to the root cause and explain the mechanism.

Often times these explanations sound esoteric. Others - just unlikely. Regardless, I happen to be correct more often than not nowadays.

Idk if that's an educated guess. I mean, we've all been educated by the same data, same xp, yet our hypotheses differ. Maybe...?