31
AlgoRythm
79d

(possibly political, but not really)

I think there's an under-reaction culture around covid19. People are mitigating it to be "just a bad flu" and keep bringing up the 2-3% death rate.

I see that people may have good intentions but spreading lies just to make it seem like the virus isn't bad is worse than the media overreacting.

I'm tired of people just repeating the same "ugh, calm down, it's just the flu!" Just because they don't want people to worry. While panic isn't good, disregard is worse.

The "bad flu" stage is only the second of three stages. Stage one is minor symptoms (so nobody cares if they are sick at this stage) coupled with patients being highly infectious (you can imagine, this is a bad combo)

Stage two is of course the famous "bad flu".

Stage three is fucking respiratory issues including pneumonia, AFTER you have already gone through stage two, which can be rough on its own.

The CDC (not any media) has issued warnings to those at high risk to stock up on supplies and medication they may need. As usual for this sort of stuff, the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions are in the high risk groups.

2% death rate (low end) is one in 50 people. That could be someone you know. 4% (high end) is one in just 25 people. That's the average high school class size where I live. That's a lot, that's pretty deadly.

Stop calling it a bad flu. Stop listening to people on Facebook, CNN, and devRant. Please visit the CDC, they are constantly giving updates.

Stay smart

Comments
  • 6
    Sources specifically mentioned:

    CDC address:

    https://youtube.com/watch/...

    Interview with recovered patient:

    https://youtube.com/watch/...
  • 3
    So far, my country has less than 10 confirmed cases, all really far away from where I live. Each new confirmed case so far has been someone the government was keeping tabs on so there are no real surprises.

    Then again, the government in my country is as corrupt as it can be.
  • 6
    The way I see it, their view is valid too...

    1. We're all screwed and gonna die now or later, so let's just keep things as usual and believe we'll all end up in Heaven

    2. You do what works for you, unless the entire world becomes zombies and you're the only one left, nothing everyone else does should matter or affect you

    3. This is just nature and evolutions way of population control and survival of the fittest

    Not to be evil but from having a genetic disease, I'm sorta like eh either way I'll die but now everyone knows what it's like... I've had my depression/panic stage years ago...
  • 1
    I notice where I am, there is lag between people getting it, and statistics being made public.

    Perhaps as much as a week or two..

    Our government is also slow reactive, rather than proactive in its advice.

    And people can't think for themselves, when the government says, don't worry, travel is fine !

    As such, whilst we was free of infections, one couple came back from holiday in Italy, mixed socially with hundreds of people, fell ill, and only now are self isolating.

    Only now are they agreeing that closing some social events is a good idea.

    So slow to react. :-(

    Splash of information for those interested:
  • 0
    https://youtube.com/user/...

    https://youtu.be/FZV9z0RVhy4?t=885

    > Tuesday 10th March Research and update

    Mentioned at 14 minutes and 45 second in.

    > bilateral interstitial pneumonia

    Causing most of the deaths in Italy.

    And mentions the shortage of ventilators.

    As such, how many do we have up here ?

    Has any considerations been given to getting more ?

    (Ebay is often a good source of 2nd hand medical equipment I notice.)

    https://3dprint.com/45352/...

    --------

    The last great ventilator shortage was IIRC in about 1951 when the polio epidemic was at its height. Famously, the hospitals used teams of medical students to squeeze bags manually on every patient until enough iron lungs had been built.

    --------
  • 0
  • 0
    https://statnews.com/2020/02/...

    --

    For a study published this month in Annals of Internal Medicine,

    researchers at the University of Toronto created an interactive tool that instantly updates projections based on different values of R0 and serial interval.

    --

    Which links to:

    https://art-bd.shinyapps.io/nCov_co...

    > Reporting, epidemic growth, and reproduction

    > numbers for the 2019-nCoV epidemic: understanding control

    https://who.int/docs/...
  • 0
    https://texashillcountry.com/fever-...

    Related link:

    https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/...

    > Fever management: Evidence vs current practice
  • 0
    As the virus is now in the wild so to speak, I try to explain to people that if reduce social contact we can slow down the virus, and this will help to reduce the number of people needing life saving medical care all at the same time.
  • 1
    As of yet, there are still some unanswered questions, such as, why is 1 in 200 people who have had the virus, then become reinfected ?

    Is it a different strain ?

    Was their test incorrect ?

    (I hear in some places, you need two negative tests to be released from hospital.)

    Or is it like herpes and the virus never leaves you ?

    I think I might have it.. so naturally I'd rather not die !

    No fever yet..

    (Thanks to Ebay for cheap digital thermometer made in China !)

    On the plus side, my testicles don't hurt anymore and the lump has vanished !

    Now, if I can just avoid getting hit by a bus..
  • 10
    The thing with your numbers is that they only represent what we do now YET.
    We do not know how many cases are there we do not know about. These are typically mild cases, reducing the death rate.
    We do not know how many people were infected without any symptoms at all. This number can be quiet high.
    We do not know how many people could really potentially effected. Even with a super pandemy, this is usually not higher than 70%.

    That means: The real death rate is much lower than 2% to 4%, probably around 0.1% to 0.3%. This is supported by the fact that highly infectable diseases have a low death rate.

    Then we end with only one people out of 1000 to 330, which means not one in your class but one or only a few in your whole school, and all of them will be teachers over 50 or 60 years old, and pupils with other heavy diseases.

    This is really not much to worry about. It's not a flu, but it isn't deadlier as a flu either.
  • 3
    It's almost as if these people were saying: "what? only 4 percent of those who are sick are going to die? Pffftt.. That's next to nothing. Let them die! I don't see any reason to limit my actions or movements in order to prevent at least one death. That's normal!!"

    these people disgust me..
  • 0
    @netikras Then you had to stop driving. Accidents in the transport system costs millions of deaths a year.
    Or you had to stop go outside at all, because you could be infected and then infect anyone with anything. There are, again, millions every year that die because of infections.

    Do you know how many people die while producing your food, your clothes, your computer and mobile phone, your toilet paper that you wish your shit away with?

    Death is a part of life. And everything we do costs life to make the lives of the living ones a bit better.
  • 2
    @netikras I have seen that attitude a LOT and it's one of the reasons I'm so upset with the public's attitude
  • 3
    @Benedikt I liked your initial comment but that one seems insensitive. Just because death is normal doesn't mean we need any more of it, and it shouldn't be a normal part of producing products. Don't be so apathetic.
  • 0
    @Benedikt
    3 things:

    1. people of any profession are aware of the risks. And they make their own decision to either take that profession or not. I do NOT influence neither their decision nor their safety in any way

    2. When I'm driving I am in control of my actions. It is my actions that cause me to either drive safely or make an accident. Technical nuances could also have an effect - that is why I pay a visit to the service periodically. In other words I do everything to prevent any negavive influence on me or others with factors under my control.

    3. yepp, that's why I'm staying inside most of the time during the risky periods: be it COVID pandemic or just a wet and cold autumn/spring day. Not taking unnecessary risks that could harm me or others in any way is a part of my day. Why would any other sane soul do otherwise?
  • 1
    your numbers are incorrect, making your argument invalid
  • 0
    @nitnip slovakia? :D
  • 0
    @webdev oh I'm sure they are
  • 0
    @AlgoRythm i was referring to 1 in 50 people... its 1 in 500
  • 0
    @webdev 2% is one in 500? Hmm...
  • 1
    @AlgoRythm using google as a primary source of info and basing your numbers on occurences on front page of search is, in the age of clickbait media and copypasta news, really dumb
  • 0
    @qwwerty was just proving a point that the information is readily available. As it turns out, the guy wasn't arguing that figure, he just doesn't know simple math.
  • 0
    @AlgoRythm i dont have the correct numbers either, long story short the last stats where they calculated it was from china and fatality for NOT ELDERLY PEOPLE but economically active, who you can see and meet on the street mostly was 1 in 500, so the 3% fatality is actually if youre actually meeting with old people, but if youre an introvert it guy like most of us 😀 fatality is waay lower... #statisticDistribution
  • 1
    @webdev my point in the original post was to illustrate how much 2% really is, 1 in 50. I think that is rather clear.
  • 0
    @billgates saying it's just as bad as the flu is not valid, it's just bullshit.

    Being a nihilist doesn't make it valid to lie about reality. I would be OK with people saying it's not a big deal because people dying is not a big deal. I don't agree but that's a valid position.

    But saying Covid-19 isn't more lethal than the flu is just a lie.
  • 0
    A great statistical analysis on where the pandemic really is right now and what we can know about the real number of cases from the confirmed ones:

    https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/...
  • 0
    We don't know exactly how lethal the coronavirus is because people who are infected but show no symptoms may never get tested. The "case fatality rate", which is a lot easier to measure, and is also much higher, is the percentage of people who are tested that die. Both rates will vary significantly between places and times, depending on how widely people are tested, the general health of the population, whether the healthcare system can handle the load, and so on.

    TL;DR There is no one ''fatality rate".
  • 1
    As for whether the coronavirus is more dangerous than the flu, the answer will still be "yes" even if the mortality rate turns out to not be significantly higher.

    The flu is an old disease, and humanity is used to dealing with it. We have an effective vaccine, and people tend to have some degree of natural immunity to it as well (from prior exposure, and I think genetic as well). And people who are immune to the flu also generally won't infect other people. Result: relatively small percentage of people get the flu every year, healthcare system can deal with it.

    Coronavirus is a new disease. No vaccine, no immunity. Everyone can catch it, everyone can spread it around. Unrestricted exponential growth means that even a small percentage of cases requiring hospitalisation will overwhelm the healthcare system, and without proper equipment (like respirators, for example) fatality rates skyrocket. So we have to slow down the spread to keep the hospitals from overflowing.
  • 0
    @Georgelemental isn't that true for any disease? If you don't feel shitty enough you never go to the doctor. So the flu has a lower case fatality rate than is recorded as well, does it not?
  • 1
    Checking the latest news I came to a somewhat unpleasant conclusion.

    And I see I'm not the only one..

    https://express.co.uk/news/uk/...

    Coronavirus UK: COVID-19 to become 'yearly virus' 60% Britons must build 'immunity'

    --------------

    CORONAVIRUS is likely to become a "yearly" occurrence and Britons will only develop "herd immunity" if 60 percent of the population contracts COVID-19, Sir Patrick Vallance warned.

    --------------

    So you see, it might not be stupidity after all..
  • 0
  • 1
    we have the same media panic every year with some new random pandemic that turns out essentially harmless, so obviously people wont take an actual threat serious solely based of bad past experience.
  • 0
    @kleopi That's not really true.
  • 0
    @kleopi

    > same media panic every year

    Which I add to my list of things to prepare for. :-)

    Might take me a while to make an asteroid displacement device though..
  • 0
    @nitnip you cant have confirmed cases if you refuse to test people.
  • 0
    Hospitals literally get paid more money for coding a victim as covid 19 then for what they actually died for.

    I take precautions anyway and encourages other to because it's the height of arrogance to believe I can't be wrong. Realistically it is just a bad flu if you really like at the empty hospital and the massive over diagnosis fraud just now emerging, the one that's inflating the numbers artificially.
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