5
Wisecrack
60d

!rant

If any of you were wondering why all the panic when we keep hearing reports of so few people personally knowing anyone with covid19 symptoms, I think I just figured out why.

So as of yesterday, assume unofficially fatality is 15%. Yesterdays death total was 3861.

If we assume roughly 15% death rate, based on ten days average for a case to recover or die, then the cases that would be recovering today on april 1st would have been infected or started to show symptoms on march 22nd.

At that time there was 32882 cases total in the u.s.

Therefore for april 1st, that would mean by the end of the day today, if the ~15% fatality rate is accurate, there would be at least 4,932 fatalities logged today.

I don't know about you, but here it's almost 9am, not even halfway through the day, and we're already at 4067 deaths.

And now we get to the part where all this shit starts to make sense.

For a long time since this outbreak has started somethings been bugging me and I couldn't place what it was till now.

Why did it seem, no matter how high the numbers climbed, no matter how much this spread 'like the flu', no matter how hard I looked into it, very few people seemed to personally know anyone *in real life* who died or at least came down with this?

I mean we'd all heard the rumors that it was more lethal, and then mums the word, it seemed like media the world over simply except the official "it's only 2% lethal" line. Same as the line about it only infecting people of asian descent.

And it didn't make sense to me why the numbers were so high, and why all the panic if it's just the flu? I knew in the back of my mind it wasn't I just didn't have a specific reason why.

Here it is: This thing is still pretty contagious, but not as contagious as it *could* be with a lower fatality rate. And with a fatality rate at 15%, combine with *just sufficient* spread, it would continue to burn and fester in communities for a year or more until those panic-numbers we see on the news would become a real thing. And then no matter HOW flat we made the curve, it would be x5-x50 times worse than a bad flu.

So we get panic and fake numbers. Because you really don't want to catch this thing. It kills 1 in 6.6. And it spread just enough that it is hard to effectively fight.

Comments
  • 2
    Yeah, this virus is almost perfect. It has amazing life/death balance, that is why it is everywhere.
  • 4
    Someone's really good at Plague Inc.
  • 1
    *accept not except.

    Basically the federal .gov wants us panicking and staying in to *prevent* this from *actually* spreading.
  • 1
    @kescherRant Been hearing good things about it.
  • 1
    It’s all skewed as hell though because if I was to have it I’m not going to the hospital unless I I’m literally planning on dying there. The hospitals are nasty cesspools, and the testing is reserved to people who are nearly dead from it already.

    So read it kind of like of confirmed cases cases about 15% are dying, but we are only testing the most severe cases.

    When we look at exposed populations the mortality rate is around 2%, but we don’t actually know how many people are infected.

    Not down playing it but getting the virus isn’t like playing Russian roulette with a theoretical 15 round revolver.
  • 3
    some of those worser numbers may be coming from the more heavily populated areas where the ratio of people to hospitals is a lot higher (or lower, not really sure how to put that).

    Also, one reason for people to not know anyone personally is because of the social distancing we're less likely to have contact with the outer fringes of our circles so when it does spread its among a close knit group of people rather than their random acquaintances. In other words you just as likely to know 10 ppl with it as you are 1.

    Just for some tangible numbers from a more sparsely populated area, our county has 20000 ppl. Out of that we have 5 cases, split between 2 households. All 5 are in recovery at this point including a grandmother. And noone's practicing any extreme social distancing measures aside from general washing of the hands an maintaining a small buffer zone. But all that being said, we've got 1 hospital, 3 clinics and 1 immediate care so literally 1 facility per case.
  • 0
    @jeeper my thoughts exactly.
  • 2
    The thing is (although that could change from a country to another) is that Covid-19 has an exponential infection rate and could go undetected within the next 14 days of infection (and anyone from healthy teen to elderly can die from it, at least that's the case in my country).

    I don't know how much of the infections are caused by the more aggressive strand of Covid-19 (which, afaik, targetted Italy and some parts of China) but that one is far more contagious and severe compared to the other one.

    A huge problem every country have (probably with the exception of South Korea who extensively tested people there) is that the number of confirmed cases may be far lower than the actual numbers. And some of the solutions to prevent hospitals from being overcrowded involves isolation (e.g. self-isolation, lockdown) and distancing (2m/6ft rule).

    Kurzgesagt made a good video on it:
    https://youtube.com/watch/...
  • 2
    @Berkmann18 Some people are beginning to speculate that deaths among young people might have something to do with vaping. It's already known to cause your lungs to retain fluid so that would seem to make sense.
  • 1
    Update, we now have 6 people, another relative caught it from the household of three. He's an elderly man just getting over walking pneumonia too unfortunately.
  • 1
    @kescherRant
    So are there official cases in Madagascar?
  • 0
    @M1sf3t AFAIK, that's a valid cause and reason pushing people to ask others to stop smoking.
  • 0
    @M1sf3t Oh dear, I hope they get well soon!
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