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Never going to happen.
Never. Period
Valve has said based on how poorly people reacted to 'Mass Effect 3', amongst other things, there is no good reason to make it.
At this point the game could never live up to expectation, and a less than perfect reception would only hurt the companies other properties.
With all the money they make from steam sales and 'free to play' micro transactions, they don't need to deal with the trouble.
The best case scenario of sales of HL3 would be less than what they currently earn a year. And worse case, it would cause trouble from 'indignant babies' who feel the need to destroy any company that causes them disappointment.
Again, and this is almost entirely confirmed, never never never.
Never.
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