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Russia is a oligarchy and sure, while he is the defacto dictator of Russia, if he's dead, another one takes the vacant spot in the power vacuum or the power vacuum itself leads to an even more dangerous scenario of lunatics fighting over the total power.
Lunatics with the possible access to nuclear warheads, chemical warfare and top grade military.
All while the civilian die a pointless death cause noone cares about them.
*takes a deep breath*
Time for the nice combo of pain relievers, fear and anxiety killers and some good old vodka, cause otherwise I'm alone with my terrible thoughts and the fear of a man who calls for denazification while representing all values of a classic Nazi.
Voxera116451y@IntrusionCM on the other hand, the one taking over could get a lot of recognition by backing of without loosing face.
It's only a matter of time until the rich Russian upper class, in particular the Russian mafia with their money laundring companies, understands that the only way to their frozen bank accounts is through Putin's funeral.
@IntrusionCM I'm going to drink some jin and tonic when everithyng ends.
@Voxera I wish I had that optimism.
In my opinion a "non-orchestratred" take over of a good person with morale is non existing.
I mean - Putin was "elected" how many times now? How many constitutional laws were changed to make that possible? How many people were outright murdered cause "someone" in the Russian government or oligarchy didn't like their point of view?
I dunno what would be needed to change a country - but given what we saw in Burma and other countries, it doesn't change, it just gets worse.
@IntrusionCM this is what you don’t understand about dictators. They don’t have heirs. People like Putin, they are individuals, not systems. Cut the head, body will follow. Nearly all leaders of Nazi germany after Hitler suicided tried to negotiate with Allies immediately, regardless of their 15 years of religious admiration of the man.
@aviophile Not really.
Hitler's suicide was the decisive moment, but the important part is that the war was lost long before.
Mor accurately - it is the disturbing part.
The war _was_ long lost, it was just uphold to commit more unspeakable atrocities.
It wasn't a "we shot the leader, it's over situation" - it was a "the leader shot himself and his zealots fled / hid all across the world's unjudged for their atrocities (or even worse - became official judges / politicians / ...)".
What you describe only works if there is nothing to salvage anymore - or, even worse, sanity doesn't apply anymore and it's just lunacy for whatever reason.
@aviophile the government of nazi germany didn't negotiate because Hitler was dead. Hitler killed himself because Germany lost. Don't think for a second they turned their backs on Hitler and Nazi Germany, they had no choice. Russia on the other hand I believe can stand strong even if Putin is dead. They are not being attacked and plenty of countries still rely heavily on them. They have enough cards to play in their deck. So really replacing Putin would be a gamble still.
Think of it this way, if Hitler was assassinated during the height of their power and Reign, no one would negotiate or give up. His closest obsessed comander would just take over and continue, perhaps with revenge in mind even, which is in many ways worse now that nuclear weapons are in play an Russia is still standing strong.
@prodigy214 perhaps, but at the same time I kinda doubt that Ukraine will stop wanting to join NATO now with Russia putting this much pressure on them.
I could ofc be wrong, but if I were Ukraine, the moment Russia releases that pressure I'd try to use the opportunity to join NATO that was created from this war ASAP so this doesn't happen again so easily.
So the only way to prevent that from Russia is to finish what they started. Which with Ukraine fighting to the death here might take some time and escalation.
Though yeah, this will probably be solved peacefuly somehow, I hope so at least
@prodigy214 Ukraine will not give up its territories.
@prodigy214 I don't think NATO is really a party in the war, Putin just blames them because it's an easy target. I see the war as Russia's last attempt to stay powerful as the people of Ukraine and Belarus have been trying to free themselves from Putin's influence. Putin must be scared that if he lets Ukraine and Belarus slide, Putin's Russia itself might see a second fall of the Soviet Union.
It's hard to see the situation getting any worse if Putin is replaced after what we've seen from him this week, but anything is always possible.
Amount of people not seeing Russia is paper tiger here is amusing though. You see captured soldiers crying, soldiers getting lost when road signs are removed or equipment left when fuel tank is empty. It is just a trash tier army relies on numbers.
@aviophile this paper tiger is responsible for hundreds of civilian deaths already and billions in destroyed property.
This is definitely not the fascist nazi behavior that some people say it is. And in the grand scheme of things I agree with you that this is pretty mild still but It's not to be taken lightly either. You can't underestimate an enemy that has no problem killing civilians and taking their homes and businesses. Paper tiger that can kill me, my friends and Family is still a tiger
There's honestly only three ways this will end, and all are fucking awful.
1. Russia quickly grabs control over Ukraine in the next few weeks. Ukraine population does not capitulate though, as large parts don't feel connected to Russia, so it turns into a decade(s)-long guerilla war, backed by NATO.
2. Russia faces a war of attrition, not being able to take Ukraine. They withdraw back to the Crimea/Donetsk/Luhansk lines. The rest of Ukraine (and most likely Sweden/Finland as well) joins NATO -- which rapidly moves in full force to create a new "Iron Curtain", with long stretches of walls and minefields. If China keeps backing Russia economically, a decade(s) long cold war will be the result.
3. Worst case: Russia goes for the Baltic states, closes off the The Suwalki Gap. That would likely be the start of WW3, or the end of humankind.
Nanos121691yI wonder if I can comment here without being mobbed..
Which in itself is a wonderful example of how conflict occurs and grows from the action of a single person with hatred for another.
Nanos121691yI dare say that Putin's actions are to save the world, not just his world, but ours too.
He is playing the long game, perhaps not as long as China does.
If one is curious as to what the short game looks like, look no further than Libya.
Look how the West invaded a sovereign country for its own aims.
Though, not really the West we think we know, but the power behind the West that control its strings.
Strings that Russia shook off, strings that don't exist in China.
I try to study wars, the reasons behind them, and what the next one in my own country might look like, the warning signs, and what to do about surviving it when it happens again.
And, what might I do to try and stop the war from ever happening in the first place.
@Nanos I am just wondering if this platform is going to turn into a "hate russia" fuck fest. There are channels I left on reddit because of this garbage. All the while there is a treaty about to be signed that gives the UN control in times of pandemic. Any elected official that signs that is committing treason against their own country. If this happens it could make the current conflict look tame. The war with Russia and Ukraine is a distraction to take away attention to the shit they will try and pull. Everyone already forgetting the war crimes committed against the people of Canada by their own government.
@Nanos thanks for blabbering hundred words only to make a salad. This self appointed faux intellectualism bores me.
That Putin sees himself as the savior of his people, i get.
But why would he care about saving the outside world?
Protecting his people from the outside world by getting more buffer between the Nato and Russia (while also getting more oil/gas fields and fertile ground by the way) - sure.
Getting "his" people from the eastern Ukraine back into great Russia - sure.
But helping the west in any way - i don't think, that that is one of his goals.
@Demolishun hate to break it down for you: the world doesn't revolve around you, and not even around North America
@Nanos I don't agree. The simple fact is that someone who means well wouldn't need to use lies to get it. But Putin constantly joined talks even before the war, outright lied and made stories about not making moves, and removing troops and all that, and then suddenly an attack to "only free Donetsk and Luhansk" meanwhile, just hours later he's attacking Kyiv? Also what happened to "we wont attack civilian building" and then shelling airports and schools?
These are not the actions of a honest man fighting a holy war. Have he maintained a narrative I might even believe him, but with the entire context taken into consideration this is either a petty war or an experiment of some kind.
I agree that "The West" (which is a pretty diverse bunch with different stakes as well) is not always the good guy.
Involvement in middle east framed as "bringing freedom and democracy" was (of course) fueled by selfish economic goals.
But just because the west handles according to their own stakes, doesn't mean that Russia is some savior.
Ukraine has immense strategic and economic value (warm water harbors, fertile soil, gas).
This video explains almost all of the stakes for both sides pretty well:
Of course, both the EU and Russia want such a great country to join their "side".
Russia argues from the perspective of "Russia started with Kiev, and it was part of our empire during Soviet times".
The EU argues from the perspective of "Today, Ukrainians would rather be part of the Bureaucratic European Union, than the Corrupt Oligarchic Russian Federation".
Of course, neither "side" can claim that this is purely about freedom or what is best for the citizens of the region. Both have stakes regarding Ukraine.
Ukraine itself however made their choice starting with the Euromaidan revolution and pro-EU elections, and Russia is behaving like an abusive ex-husband. 🤷♀️
Stauffenberg was a German army officer best known for his failed attempt on 20 July 1944 to assassinate Adolf Hitler. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
It is of course possible that Putin is an ultra-environmentalist, wants to protect the planet from climate change, and thought "how do I stop Nordstream 2, and in general stop the EU from buying fossil fuels from my terrible oligarch buddies?"
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Someone close to Putin needs to put a bullet in his head. They could literally save the world